Spain have been the most complete team at this World Cup. It is not even close.
They topped Group H without drama — drawing with Cape Verde, then beating Saudi Arabia 4-0 and Uruguay 1-0. In the knockout stage, they were even more dominant. They beat Portugal in the Round of 16. They beat Belgium in the quarter-finals. They beat France 2-0 in the semi-finals with a performance that left the tournament’s most lethal attacking side with a staggering 0.3 xG.
Most remarkably of all, Spain have not trailed for a single minute during this entire tournament. They have conceded just one goal in seven matches. Their defensive record is the best at any World Cup since Italy in 2006. Rodri has been the most complete defensive midfielder in the competition. Pau Cubarsí and Aymeric Laporte have been immovable in central defence.
As a result, Spain enter Sunday’s final as Opta’s favourites — given a 45.1% chance of winning in regulation time. They are the neutral’s pick. They have the better system, the better structure, and the better defensive record. In any other World Cup, they would be overwhelming favourites.
However, the other team in Sunday’s final is Argentina.
Argentina have taken the hardest possible road to this final. In every single knockout match, they have been pushed to the absolute limit. And every single time, they have found a way.
They trailed Cape Verde in the Round of 32 and came back to win 3-2 in extra time. They were 2-0 down against Egypt in the Round of 16 before winning 3-2. They needed extra time again against Switzerland in the quarter-finals. Against England in the semi-final, they trailed 1-0 with five minutes remaining before Enzo Fernández equalised in the 85th minute and Lautaro Martínez headed a Messi cross into the net in stoppage time to win 2-1.
In fact, Argentina have not led in the 90th minute in a single knockout match at this tournament. They are only the second team in World Cup history to reach the final after not leading at that stage in any of their knockout matches — after Croatia in 2018. Furthermore, Argentina have scored 10 goals in this tournament after the 75th minute. No team in World Cup history has ever scored so many late goals in a single tournament.
They should not still be here. They are still here. And on Sunday, they have the chance to become just the third nation to win back-to-back World Cups — after Italy in 1934 and 1938, and Brazil in 1958 and 1962.
This is the central question of the final. Spain have conceded just one goal all tournament. Their defensive organisation has been suffocating. Yet Messi has eight goals and six assists at this tournament — 14 direct contributions in seven matches. Nobody has come close to stopping him.
Spain’s plan will be similar to what they did to Mbappé against France — double up, show him onto his weaker foot, and never let him turn at pace. Whether they can execute that against a player of Messi’s intelligence is another matter entirely.
Moreover, Messi knows this is his final match at a World Cup. He has said as much. Players who know they are playing their last game of this magnitude do not hold anything back.
On the other side, Lamine Yamal is the player Argentina fear most. The 19-year-old Barcelona prodigy has one goal and one assist at this tournament — modest numbers that do not reflect his true influence. He draws defenders, opens space, and creates anxiety in every team he faces.
Argentina’s left side — Tagliafico and Mac Allister — will face their most difficult test of the tournament against Yamal’s directness and pace. How they handle him could define the entire match.
The midfield battle matters enormously. Rodri anchors Spain’s passing carousel — controlling tempo, winning the ball back, and preventing opposition attacks from building rhythm. Enzo Fernández has been Argentina’s most dynamic midfielder, scoring the equaliser against England and providing relentless energy in every match.
According to Goal.com’s tactical preview, this midfield battle will determine which side gets to dictate the tempo of the final.
Spain: Unai Simón; Pedro Porro, Pau Cubarsí, Aymeric Laporte, Marc Cucurella; Rodri, Fabián Ruiz; Lamine Yamal, Dani Olmo, Álex Baena; Mikel Oyarzabal
Argentina: Emiliano Martínez; Nahuel Molina, Cristian Romero, Lisandro Martínez, Nicolás Tagliafico; Rodrigo De Paul, Leandro Paredes, Alexis Mac Allister, Enzo Fernández; Lionel Messi, Julián Álvarez
No major injury concerns for either side. Nico Williams returned from injury for Spain during the knockout stage and may push for a starting place. Lautaro Martínez comes into the final in outstanding form after his stoppage-time winner against England.
Messi leads the Golden Boot race with eight goals this tournament. Mikel Oyarzabal has five for Spain. The individual award will almost certainly be settled on Sunday.
However, it is worth noting that Messi sharing the Golden Boot race with Kylian Mbappé — who is now eliminated — means the award is Messi’s to lose. If he scores on Sunday, the Golden Boot and the World Cup final will both be his. That subplot adds yet another layer to what is already the most anticipated football match of the decade.
Spain and Argentina have met six times in competitive football. Spain hold the edge — winning four, drawing one, and losing one. However, their most recent competitive meeting was the 2022 Finalissima — the match between the European champions and the Copa América champions — which Argentina won 3-0.
Argentina are chasing their fourth World Cup title. Spain are chasing only their second — their first came in 2010 when Andrés Iniesta’s extra-time goal beat the Netherlands in Johannesburg. For Spain, this final represents a chance to become a genuine multi-title nation. For Argentina, it is about legacy — theirs, and Messi’s.
Date: Sunday, July 19, 2026 Kick-off: 3pm ET / 8pm BST / 9pm CEST / 12:30am IST (Monday) Venue: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey Capacity: 82,500 fans TV (UK): BBC One / ITV1 — free to watch TV (US): FOX Sports Live updates: FIFA official match centre
This is the hardest match of the tournament to call. Spain have been the better team all tournament. Their system is suffocating. Their defence is extraordinary. They have not trailed once in seven matches.
However, Argentina keep winning. They keep surviving. They keep finding Messi when it matters most. And Messi, at 39 years old, in what is his final World Cup match, will be playing with everything he has.
Our head says Spain. Their defensive record, their tactical discipline, and their clinical finishing give them the edge on paper.
Our heart says Argentina. Because Messi. Because this is his last match. Because Argentina do not lose finals when everything is on the line.
GameDay prediction: Spain 1-1 Argentina after 90 minutes. Argentina win on penalties.
We believe Emiliano Martínez — the best penalty-saving goalkeeper at this tournament — will be the difference in the shootout. Argentina have won every penalty shootout they have been involved in at this World Cup. Spain have not faced one.
That said, both of us could be very wrong about this. It is a World Cup final. Anything can happen. That is the beauty of it.
For our full coverage of how both teams arrived at this final, check our Argentina vs England semi-final report and our Spain vs France semi-final report.
Who wins the World Cup final — Spain or Argentina? Drop your final prediction in the comments below.
Stay with GameDay for live match reaction, player ratings, and the full World Cup final match report as soon as the final whistle blows at pitchmag.online. Follow all the action at ESPN’s World Cup hub.
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